Analysts: U.S. should rethink impartiality on Egypt

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The Obama administration needs to revamp its entire Middle East strategy of remaining impartial in conflicts in Egypt and elsewhere because it risks giving anti-American radicals an opening to take over, analysts said.
 
"We don't take sides with any particular party or political figure," President Obama said Thursday in his first statement on a crackdown by Egyptian police on anti-government protests that left more than 500 supporters of ousted president Mohammed Morsi dead.
 
Obama canceled exercises with the Egyptian military and encouraged the country's leaders to restore the democratic process, protect peaceful demonstrators and refrain from victimizing minorities.
 
Obama's message boils down to "we're just sitting by and watching," said Michael Doran, who served as a deputy assistant secretary of Defense and a senior director at the National Security Council under President George W. Bush.
 
Instead, Obama should jump into the Middle East fray and deal with regional issues that threaten U.S. interests and allies, Doran said.
 
Rather than focus on peace between Israel and the Palestinians, he should pull together allies in Europe and Persian Gulf states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia that have propped up the Egyptian economy with multiple billion-dollar cash infusions to formulate a cohesive policy for the region, Doran said.
 
That means making U.S. aid to Egypt's military and Gulf support to Egypt's general fund conditional on Egyptian leaders adopting a clear path to democracy. To get Gulf states to agree, Obama has to address their concerns in Syria, Iraq and Iran, places where Shiite Muslim forces are warring with Sunni Muslims and where U.S. policy is also lacking, Doran said.
 
"We have to have a regional strategy that's well run," Doran said. "We're not going to get strategic accommodations with our major partners if we don't have a regionwide approach."
 
Obama's foreign policy priorities were perhaps best described June 30 by his then-national security adviser, Tom Donilon, who told CNN that the administration determined "that we were over-invested in our military efforts in South Asia and in the Middle East" compared with Asia as whole and set about to reorient its attention elsewhere.
 
Thursday, Obama pledged to work with Egyptians "who support a future of stability that rests on a foundation of justice and peace and dignity," but he offered no proposals for achieving that goal.
 
Tamara Wittes, who as deputy assistant secretary of State from 2009 to 2012 coordinated U.S. democracy policy in the Middle East, said the United States should start by encouraging the Egyptian government to immediately take concrete steps toward an inclusive political system and show its sincerity by holding accountable those responsible for Wednesday's killings.
 
That means "allowing people who believe they've been treated outside the rule of law to press their cases," Wittes said.
 
Those in power should try again to reach out and compromise with willing opponents among the Muslim Brotherhood or its followers, she said.
 
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the canceled maneuvers are a strong message to Egypt's rulers.
 
"The United States has made it clear that the Egyptian government must refrain from violence, respect freedom of assembly and move toward an inclusive political transition," he said.
 
Egypt's leaders have demonstrated indifference to U.S. exhortations about democracy and justice. Elliott Abrams, a former deputy assistant to Bush on Middle East issues, said that attitude solidified when the Obama administration failed "to call a coup a coup" when a freely elected president, Morsi, was deposed July 3.
 
That convinced the generals that "we need them a lot more than they need us" and that the U.S. president is willing to ignore U.S. law to remain on good terms with them, Abrams said.
 
The United States has to accept it has very little influence in Egypt and cutting off aid will not cause Egypt's army "to snap to attention," Abrams said.
 
Instead, the rationale should be "we're doing this for us, so we have a foreign policy we can sell, that stands up to our moral standards," Abrams said. "You can't turn to an army that just killed 500 mostly unarmed people and say here's your next aid package."
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