We have all been treated to an avalanche of doomsday prophecies by different pastors of different denominations. And we all know that these men are not particularly saying anything we did not know ahead. And it is in the atmosphere that Nigeria federation is on the verge of implosion.
Different tribes are exchanging words and actions of war, I am not talking about the empty internet quarrels of Igbos and Yorubas over Achebe’s bitter regurgitation – I am talking about the real and present confrontations between the Ijaws and the Hausa Fulanis over political and military power on one hand and animosities created in the middlebelt over the effect of institutionalised nomadic animal husbandry practices on cultivated farmland, coupled with the unrelenting assaults of terror groups on Christians and government facilities.
I am afraid that Nigeria as we know it is dying, the ‘federal’ system of government where most of the resources are concentrated at the center is entirely unsustainable in a democratic dispensation especially under the rule of a self confessed slow leader.
Nigeria is bleeding from the cancers in the North, there is deep widespread poverty amidst stupendous wealth and rancid corruption. There is general inertia in most indices of national development and youth unemployment is at an all time high which spurred a former ruler to warn of the eventuality of a revolution by frustrated citizens
The ‘Federal’ system of government was an expedient military classification in the strategic situation of the 67 civil war; to all points and measures aside from name designation, Nigeria is in fact a unitary government, this can not last long without the brute power of a military regime.
Alas it is too late for a successful military coup, first the President’s loyalists are in full control of the Army besides the country has become way too militarised with private armies in different regions.
Military coups can only work and prosper where many 'civilians' don’t have guns – else there would be a re-enactment of the Mali phenomenon with the new regime lacking the credibility to control dissidents.
Just look back together now; to the time of military rule, could the Niger Delta insurrection that threw up President Goodluck Jonathan have succeeded?
Would gangsters like Government alias Tompolo, Asari Dokubo etc be allowed to become lords unto themselves with private armies and weaponry that is superior to many African national armies?
Looking further back – i remember that Frederick Fasheun’s OPC activities under Abacha was severely limited to ideological inclinations, OPC’s militancy under Gani Adams grew to national awareness during Obasanjo’s two terms in democracy. The Federal Government was compelled to make peace with Adams and his men.
Today all over the South West you will find public signboards of the various meeting points of the self deterministic organization, the police does not disturb them in anyway besides they enjoy state and local government patronage. They march openly with guns and live ammunition during protests or other ‘public enlightenment campaigns’ and nothing happens
I daresay that the only self deterministic organizations in southern Nigeria that are been subjugated by the State security forces are the Igbo people’s Movement For Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra and other Biafra activists.
Taking a cue from OPC, MEND and the different Niger delta militant groups, the Kanuris, kin to the Hausa Fulani ethnic bloc have created Boko Haram -Africa's deadliest terror group. It is apparent that the Federal government under Goodluck Jonathan is unable to control them, he has asked for prayers to overcome them but unfortunately for him, the antagonists are unwilling to negotiate except he resigns and converts to Islam
Impossible demands really.
In short they can not be bribed like Gani, Asari, Boyloaf Tompolo, Ateke Tom etc,
They are snakes that can not be charmed.
Hydra – a mythical serpentine monster with multiple fire breathing heads
From the North East based Sunni Islamist Boko Haram emerges a splinter group called Ansaru. There are other sleeper cells of fundamental Islamic sects waiting to be unleashed in the democratic dispensation of Goodluck Jonathan, including the North West Shia Islamist group in Kaduna led by Sheik Zakzaky. The Shias have strong leaning to Iran and Hezbollah in the middle east while Sunni Boko Haram is affiliated to Al-Queda and Al-Shabaab.
Sheik Zakzaky oversees a large camp in Kaduna where thousands of young men are engaged in physical training and mental orientation in Islamic fundamentals. These young men are encouraged to watch Arab directed movies on the conquests of Uthman Dan Fodio in West Africa and military exploits of Islamists all over the world.
Sheik Zakzaky says he has hundreds of thousands of followers
All the northern clerics are preaching now – preaching against the government just like the two recently released Hausa speaking journalists– led by JNI and the outspoken Sheik Gumi- a man who said that Christians are more dangerous than Boko Haram
The ongoing indoctrination against GEJ in the mosques and radio waves is an essential element of the plan to destroy this democratic government way before 2015. It reminds me of the RTL radio broadcasts of the Hutus right before the Interhamawe ushered Rwanda into a civil war
A friend of mine said that if he was the president he would order Sheik Gumi’s arrest, since that is what a military man like Abacha would do to staunch impending revolt. Me – I would not arrest the man if I were President. The man is an untouchable just like Buhari even after the all incendiary speeches – if you touch him- you grab at a mature crocodile in its element. His followers will blow up faster than can be managed and the situation will deteriorate very rapidly.