On March 28, 2015, Nigerians would be heading to the polls to choose a president who would govern them for the next 4 years. Unlike other countries, Nigeria has a complex political atmosphere .While Buhari and the All Progressive Congress (APC) may appear to be gaining momentum at the moment, there are 5 likely reasons why Buhari might loose in the coming presidential election. These reasons are disused below.
1) The Independence Of INEC Has been Compromised
The independence of the an electoral body is sacrosanct in conducting credible elections in any country. In Nigeria however, the independence INEC has always been called into question. From the tenure of Abel Guobadia in (2000- 2005) to the tenure of Moris Uwu (between 2005- 2010), and even now that Atahiru Jega is at the helm of affairs, INEC is only as free as the government permits it to be. Both Abel Guobadia and Moris Iwu were criticized for overseeing elections that were not any better than that organized by the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW). The reason why these men failed in their their duty to provide free and fair elections is not far fetched. Nigerian politicians will never permit a free and fair
election. And from the dramatic way in which the February 14 poll was shifted it, appears President Jonathan might not be ready to permit credible elections on March 28.
2) Christian Vs Muslim Ideology
Nigeria is one of the most religiously divided countries in the world and the strong influence religion has would also come to bear on March 28. This may work against Buhari at the polls. The misconceptions about Buhari that he is a jihadist waiting to Islamize Nigeria may be his undoing at the polls. Nigerians are known to push religious sentiment above other important issues.
3) The Nigerian Army Is now A Political Party
Gone are the gallant days of the Nigerian Army . In recent times the Nigerian Army has become a shadow of itself. In other countries, the military separates itself from politics and never blurs that line. During the Arab spring in 2011, the military in several Arab countries who had sit –in-tight dictators lived up to the expectation, they tasked themselves with protecting lives and property and did not go further. In Nigeria, the opposite holds sway, the Nigerian Army has become a product of our decayed society. A career in the army is now about looking for juicy postings and ghana must go bags. Following the manner the Nigerian Army handled the Buhari certificate saga, it is clear whose side they are on, the side of OUR OGA AT THE TOP. The one who can guarantee them juicy postings and jumbo retirement benefits, President Jonathan. With a partial military, Buhari would likely loose on March 28.
4) PDP Is Poised To Win By All Means
If the recent audio tape by Sahara reporters which purports to record how the Ekiti elections were rigged in 2014 is anything to go by, then Buhari has lost even before the March 28 election begins. The People’s Democratic Party has been in power for 16 years with little to show for it. The PDP is well known for surrounding it self with individuals who lack credibility, from Alamieyeseigha who jumped bail in England by dressing as a woman to James Ibori and other politicians who are see credibility as a virtue too expensive to afford. If PDP can decorate itself with politicians like these, then Buhari can kiss free and fair elections goodbye.
Tribalism just like religion is another hurdle that Gen Buhari might be unable to cross. The contest between President Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party and Gen Buhari of the All Progressive Party has been portrayed through the eyes of many as a contest between a Southerner and a Northerner. Politicians have also taken advantage of this loophole to champion the crusade that Buhari is from the northern part of the country where majority of Nigeria’s past rulers hail from. They they feel that all non-northerners should unite and vote President Jonathan because as a southerner, he deserves to be in power. Sadly, this view is shared by many Nigerians and this could make Buhari loose come March 28.If Buhari cannot scale these hurdles then he could be inline to loose the presidential election for the third consecutive time.